MANCHESTER, England (CN) - Scotland's main pro-independence party wants another chance to vote on leaving the United Kingdom, a decade after Scots chose to remain part of the four-nation bloc.

John Swinney, leader of the Scottish National Party, said if his party wins a majority in next year's Scottish parliamentary elections, it should trigger a fresh independence referendum. 

A victory would put the party in a "much stronger position" to negotiate a mandate for a new vote, Swinney said.

Scotland last held an independence referendum in 2014, when 55% of voters opted to stay in the U.K. 

But the political landscape has changed sharply since then, particularly after Brexit in 2020, which exposed divisions among the four nations: England and Wales voted to leave while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain within the European Union.

A shifting political map

The SNP lost its majority in the Scottish Parliament after the referendum, with talks of independence receding into the background.

A turbulent few years followed, with multiple leadership changes and corruption probes denting the party's standing.

But polling ahead of the May 2026 election shows the SNP as clear favorites, with nationalist movements across the U.K. gaining ground as the ruling Labour Party's dominance wanes.

That trend was echoed in Wales, where Thursday's by-election saw the Welsh National Party capture the historic Llanelli seat, the first time in more than a century that Labour has lost an election there.

For Alexander Smith, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Warwick, the SNP's lead in the polls is encouraging for those who wish to revisit independence. 

"It's welcome news for the SNP given the political turbulence the party has endured in recent years," Smith said, "particularly following the resignation of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon."

Sturgeon, who led Scotland for eight years, resigned in 2023 saying she was "exhausted" by the demands of the job, with her departure following months of political strain and controversy. 

Peter Murrell, her husband and the SNP's former chief executive, was arrested as part of a police investigation into the party's finances. In March 2025, he was charged with embezzlement and is out on bail.

Despite the party controversy, it is on course for a clear victory. Smith said: "If the nationalists win an outright majority, or even a majority in favor of independence with support from the Greens, they will have a strong mandate for a second independence referendum."

Westminster roadblock

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he has no plans to authorize another referendum during his term. 

Under Britain's constitutional system, the Scottish government in Edinburgh cannot legally hold a binding independence vote without approval from the U.K. Parliament.

Speaking of his position, Starmer said: "We got a big election win last year on the basis that we would stabilize the economy and ensure that on that foundation we built a stronger Scotland in a stronger United Kingdom, and that's what I intend to do."

If Westminster refused a second referendum, the path to independence would face legal and constitutional hurdles.

"Assuming that a second referendum was called without the consent of Westminster, and there was an overwhelming vote in support of independence, this would nonetheless represent a significant political victory for the SNP and create pressure for the constitutional settlement of the U.K.," Smith said.

"In other words, even if the path to independence remained fraught with legal and constitutional obstacles, a mandate for independence in the referendum would further destabilize the U.K. constitution in ways that could open up new political opportunities for those seeking independence for Scotland," he added.

Return to EU

A vote to leave the U.K. is wrapped up in rejoining the EU.

The SNP leader has hit out at Brexit's "truly disastrous outcome" on Scotland, adding that independence was the only way the country could "regain the benefits of EU membership." 

Swinney further clarified that "Scotland's interests lie firmly in being part of the European Union."

There is strong support around Europe to welcome Scotland back. 

A recent YouGov poll suggests the idea would be popular in much of Europe, with majorities in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Denmark saying they would support Scotland's entry into the EU.

Smith said that while rejoining would be possible, it would not be automatic as it "would be applying to join as a new member and the process would be governed by the EU's rules on the accession of new nation-states," as well as subject to the approval of all 27 member states.

Smith said it's likely that Scotland would have to adopt the euro, like any new member. But because Scotland previously followed EU law and remains closely aligned with EU regulations, its path to membership could be relatively smooth.

Scottish voices

Michael, who's from Falkirk, a town in central Scotland, felt Westminster was standing in the way of democracy. Referring to Starmer's refusal to allow another referendum, he said: "Scotland is being held against her will. Surely under those circumstances we have the right to declare independence."

Others saw independence as a necessary step toward national progress. "Being in the union is a distraction from our country reaching its full potential," said Bob, a Scottish resident.

William, who plans to vote for the SNP, added that those who want to remain with the U.K. are divided: "The unionist vote is now split four ways: Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dem and Reform. Clearly, now is the time."

Politics around the U.K. remains unpredictable and volatile.

Starmer has the worst approval ratings on record. The Conservatives suffered their worst ever election defeat in 2024. And populist parties on the right and left are rising in the polls as politics pulls away from the center.

With smaller parties also gaining in Scottish polls, Swinney hopes his call for a new independence vote will reignite one of the country's most enduring debates.

Courthouse News reporter James Francis Whitehead is based in England.

Source: Courthouse News Service